Statistics and Computational Methods Seminar Series - Fall 2026

Speaker: Fabian Wunderlich (German Sport University Cologne)

Title: Statistical analysis of betting odds: Market efficiency, information extraction and use cases in football

Abstract:
One of the most important findings in football forecasting is the robust evidence supporting the high predictive quality of betting odds as predictor of match outcomes. Both in terms of accuracy and profitability, it is very difficult, if not impossible, to beat the betting odds. Doing so would require a model demonstrating superior accuracy compared to betting odds or a strategy to generate systematic profits as a bettor. These results imply that highly relevant information on sporting performance is efficiently reflected in betting odds. The present talk will shed light on statistical methods to efficiently extract anduse information contained in betting odds. Extraction of information requires knowledge on how to statistically model the process of a football match, e.g. through Poissonian modelling. Metrics identified from betting odds may be used in sports practice, sports analytics and performance analysis, e.g. to model financial risks for clubs, to accurately estimate team strengths, to monitor long-term development of clubs or to better understand the relationship between team strength, performance and success.

Own literature relevant to this talk:

Wunderlich, F., Gardeweg, L., Holler, M., Memmert, D. (2026). The difficulty to replicate violations of semi-strong market efficiency: Evidence from sports betting markets. Manuscript submitted for publication

Heuer, A., Wunderlich, F. (2026). Quantifying statistical optimality in performance indicators and markets. Manuscript in preparation

Wunderlich, F. (2025). Using the wisdom of crowds in sports: how performance analysis in football can benefit from the information enclosed in betting odds. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 25(4), 687-706.

Gerken, J., Zhang, H., Garnica Caparrós, M., Gardeweg, L., Memmert, D., Wunderlich, F. (2026). The issue of sparse networks in sports competitions: can Elo ratings efficiently compare football teams that never play a match? Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1-16.

Link Teams: https://teams.microsoft.com/meet/312278579374729?p=yY5Jfh2o6ML2YeFzOt