Titolo: US-China post-COVID Air Connectivity and CO2 Emissions: Insights from a Structural Model

Abstract: The US-China direct flights did not recover after the pandemic. An estimated structural model shows that re-establishing the pre-pandemic direct connectivity could increase total passengers by 402%, reduce prices by 63%, and reduce CO2 emission per passenger by about 21%. Moreover, this quasi-experiment informs the debate on the decarbonization of air transport, contributing to the "tax vs.quota'' debate. The same decline in total CO2 emissions due to the suppression of flights, could have been achieved by offsetting, resulting in 365% more passengers travelling between US and China, at prices 60% lower than observed in the post-COVID period.