ECONOMICS SEMINAR SERIES (ESS) - 2024/2025

Speaker: Marco Manacorda (Queen Mary University of London)

Title: The International Transmission of Democratic Values: Evidence from African Migration to Europe

Abstract: This paper examines how rising anti-immigrant sentiment in host countries affects attitudes toward democracy among migrants and in migrants' origin communities. We focus on African migration to Europe and propose a novel methodology to estimate migration stocks from sub-national areas of origin in Africa to any country worldwide using Google Trends data. We combine these data with electoral outcomes that capture the success of anti-immigrant parties in Europe to derive African region-specific measures of exposure to anti-immigrant sentiment at destination. Our results show that increased anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe led to a deterioration in democratic attitudes among African citizens, with the effect being concentrated in non-democratic countries. Consistent with the hypothesis that these effects are mediated through migrant networks, we find evidence of worsened labor market outcomes and declining support for democracy among African migrants in Europe. We conclude that rising anti-immigrant sentiment in Western democracies has the potential to hamper migrants' integration and support for host country-institutions, in turn undermining democratic progress at origin.